I PLUG TO YOU...: May 2018

As you may be aware, semi final 1 took place on Tuesday night. Those who follow me on Twitter will know that the semi lived up to its reputation as one of the toughest in the history of the contest, taking out fan favourites such as Greece and Belgium, as well as ordinarily strong countries like Azerbaijan and Armenia (who almost never miss the final). On the plus side, I guessed 9/10 of the qualifiers in my predictions post (I admittedly didn't see Ireland coming, grrr).

Here is a recap of the 10 qualifiers from semi 1:

1. Israel - Netta - "Toy"
2. Czech Republic - Mikolas Josef - "Lie To Me"
3. Estonia - Elina Nechayeva - "La Forza"
4. Cyprus - Eleni Foureira - "Fuego"
5. Austria - Cesár Sampson - "Nobody but You"
6. Bulgaria - EQUINOX - "Bones"
7. Finland - Saara Aalto - "Monsters"
8. Lithuania - Ieva Zasimauskaitė - "When We're Old"
9. Albania - Eugent Bushpepa - "Mall"
10. Ireland - Ryan O'Shaughnessy - "Together"

Despite semi final 1 being coined 'the bloodbath', this was originally said of semi final 2 (which takes place tonight)...although, note that this was said before the majority of the songs were announced. Now that the likes of Romania, Norway and the Netherlands have decided to send absolute trash, this semi suddenly feels far less competitive than semi 1. Despite the quality being far lower overall, the lack of decisive qualifiers (aside from Sweden, Ukraine, Norway and Poland) makes this semi just as open.

Admittedly, I have FAR less of a stake in this semi, so it should be a far easier watch. As before, I will rank who I originally thought would be going through, who I now think will be going through after seeing the rehearsals and who I want to go through:

Who I THOUGHT would go through (pre-rehursals)

1. Sweden - Benjamin Ingrosso - "Dance You Off"
2. Ukraine - Melovin - "Under the Ladder"
3. Norway - Alexander Rybak - "That's How You Write A Song"
4. Denmark - Rasmussen - "Higher Ground"
5. The Netherlands - Waylon - "Outlaw In 'Em"
6. Australia - Jessica Mauboy - "We Got Love"
7. Poland - Gromee feat. Lukas Meijer - "Light Me Up"
8. Russia - Julia Samoylova - "I Won't Break"
9. Moldova - DoReDos - "My Lucky Day"
10. Hungary - AWS - "Viszlát nyár"

Who I THINK will go through (post-rehursals)

1. Sweden - Benjamin Ingrosso - "Dance You Off"
2. Ukraine - Melovin - "Under the Ladder"
3. Norway - Alexander Rybak - "That's How You Write A Song"
4. Denmark - Rasmussen - "Higher Ground"
5. The Netherlands - Waylon - "Outlaw In 'Em"
6. Australia - Jessica Mauboy - "We Got Love"
7. Poland - Gromee feat. Lukas Meijer - "Light Me Up"
8. Malta - Christabelle - "Taboo"
9. Moldova - DoReDos - "My Lucky Day"
10. Hungary - AWS - "Viszlát nyár"

Who I WANT to go through

1. Sweden - Benjamin Ingrosso - "Dance You Off"
2. Ukraine - Melovin - "Under the Ladder"
3. Denmark - Rasmussen - "Higher Ground"
4. Australia - Jessica Mauboy - "We Got Love"
5. Moldova - DoReDos - "My Lucky Day"
6. Hungary - AWS - "Viszlát nyár"
7. Slovenia - Lea Sirk - "Hvala, Ne!"
8. Latvia - Laura Rizzotto - "Funny Girl"
9. Malta - Christabelle - "Taboo"
10. Serbia - Sanja Ilić & Balkanika - "Nova Deca"

Let's wait and see if my predictions are as accurate as they were for semi 1...

Rehearsals are currently well underway and a lot of my earlier perceptions and predictions have now changed. As most of my favourites have begun to slip, Cyprus and Moldova are beginning to emerge as dark horses for top 10. Before my final, post-rehursal predictions are published next week (hopefully), it's time to round up the ESC 2018 reviews with the so-called 'Big 5' (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom) + this year's host country (Portugal). In case ya didn't know, the big 5 are the biggest beneficiaries to the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), and therefore do not have to compete in the semi finals and are guaranteed a spot in the grand final...whether they're entry is good or not.

France - Madame Monsieur - "Mercy"
My score: 9.5/10
Can it make the top 10? Yes.
Can it win? This is my pick to win, so yes...?

Following two consecutively strong entries and results, France return with yet another quality entry. Their national selection, Destination Eurovision, was one of the strongest national selections this year and produced a number of songs with top 10 potential. One of the first songs announced, this has been a contender for the win from the very start of the season; it started off on top of many fan polls and lists...and it's still in many top 5s, including my own. The sheer stamina of this entry is very promising indeed.

So why do I think this could be the winner? Well, the song has arguably the strongest and most compelling storyline of the year - written about a child refugee born on the boat escaping her parents' homeland. The airy and modern production adds a sense of light to the song, conveying the hope hidden in the heaviness of the message. Even though it's sang entirely in French, the message is clear enough to transcend the language barrier (my French is trash and yet I understand it without translation). The message is topical, but just about skirts around EBU rules regarding political messages (see: Ukraine's winning song 1944 from 2016). In today's climate, I think this would be an important addition to our run of recent winners.

Germany - Michael Schulte -"You Let Me Walk Alone"
My score: 5.5/10
Can it make the top 10? Urgh, I hope not.
Can it win? No.

Unlike France, Germany are pretty terrible at Eurovision at the moment. After a string of bottom 5 finishes, it feels like not coming last can be deemed a victory for the Germany delegation. I *would* compare them to Ireland in this respect, but that's a bit harsh considering that Germany has actually had good entries in the last 20 or so years - see: Lena's 'Taken By A Stranger' and Roman Lobb's 'Standing Still'. Even though 'You Let Me Walk Alone' is nowhere near as good as those, it's certainly not a last placer.

It appears that Ed Sheeran's impact on music just won't let up...unfortunately. Yes, this is yet another by-the-numbers clinical sad acoustic man, and I'm BORED of it. I'll admit that this has a touching message, but it almost feels too manufactured to be authentic, as if I'm being manipulated. If Ed Sheeran can be one of the biggest artists of our time, I see no reason why basics across Europe won't lap this up.

Italy - Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro - "Non mi avete fatto niente"

My score: 8/10
Can it make the top 10? Yes.
Can it win? Yes.

Even Eurovision casuals may remember how hyped Italy's entry was last year; Occidentali's Karma was the hot favourite to win and topped the odds for months by some margin. Unfortunately, it ran out of steam once rehearsals began, eventually coming 6th in the grand final. Although 6th is respectable, it is now considered a 'flop' by some. But this year, they've returned with vengeance. If France was just about skirting around the whole 'no political message' rule, Italy are dancing right over on the other side. Honestly, I have no idea how this got the green light from the EBU - this is a song that explicitly references terrorism and does so unashamedly.

The lyrics, entirely in Italian, are the darkest in the context this year. Just in case you thought that might go unnoticed due to the language barrier, they've confirmed that they will be subtitling the entire performance in a number of different languages. Whilst 'Mercy' is subtle, this is aggressive and urgent, veering on off-putting. It's a love-it-or-loathe-it kinda entry, but you can't vote against a song, so perhaps it'll do better than I think? I appreciate that Italy is taking a risk; if it connects - it could win, but if it doesn't - it could flop spectacularly.

Portugal - Cláudia Pascoal - "O jardim"

My score: 9/10
Can it make the top 10? Yes.
Can it win? If only.

Following their epic win last year, it really feels like Portugal have finally found their Eurovision groove (it's about damn time). Yes, after their historic win in 2017 with Salvador Sobral's beautiful 'Amar Pelos Dois', Portugal offer yet another authentic Portuguese ballad as their host entry. I happen to prefer this to APD, mostly because the message resonates with me far more. The song was written by Isaura (who's vocals feature) and is about tending to her grandmother's garden after she passed away. The modern production that kicks in half way through completes the package and makes this unique to anything else this year.

If Portugal weren't hosting, I'd label this a dark horse to win. Claudia is an utterly compelling performer (and has fantastic hair), so I could see her connecting to viewers quite easily. There's a hypnotic vibe to the production, that makes Claudia's fragile delivery all-the-more stirring. Isaura has proven herself to be a vital component to this, with her backing vocals adding texture. I would love to see this in the top 10, if not win.

Spain - Alfred & Amaia - "Tu canción"

My score: 6.5/10
Can it make the top 10? Yes.
Can it win? Yikes, maybe ?

Like Germany and Portugal, Spain hasn't had the best track record for Eurovision success in the last few years, even coming last in 2017. This is sad because Spanish fan base is so active and dedicated to the contest, as shown by the fact that the audience at the Madrid pre-party sang along to every damn song word-for-word, even the non-English ones. I want them to get a good result on those grounds...but as for the song, it's a different story.

I HATED this at first - mostly because they practically sang it into each other's MOUTHS at the national final, holding onto one another for dear life. I'll admit that it has grown on me since, even though their fruitless modulation still bothers me. Key change or not, this has a huge fanbase and for that it could go big in the televote. The juries? I'm not so sure.

United Kingdom - SuRie - "Storm"

My score: 610
Can it make the top 10? No.
Can it win? No.

Again, we move onto a country with a spotty Eurovision record in recent years. The UK is a historical hotbed of musical talents, and yet we can't seem to get Eurovision right. Why? Because the BBC simply don't care. We certainly have the resources to win, and yet we choose not to. As a result, the contest has little credibility in the UK at the moment. In order to be in a position to send better known artists and attract better songwriters - we need to build the credibility of the contest up again.

This year, we have a great artist with a winning personality...with a nothing song. Out of all the uplifting, generic pop songs this year, Australia and Azerbaijan completely outclass this in every aspect. My pick from the UK selection was Asanda's Legends, which had potential for a high impact staging and a great result. But, as predicted, the UK chose to go for the 'safe' option, and as a result we have a song with trite lyrics, which is inexcusable for a country that originated the English language...like c'mon. Yup...this is destined to bring the UK back down to the bottom 5 after a strong finish last year.

Updated ranking:

Semi 1 (by chances of qualification)

1. Israel - Netta - "Toy" - 9.5

2. Czech Republic - Mikolas Josef - "Lie To Me" - 8

3. Estonia - Elina Nechayeva - "La Forza" - 8

4. Cyprus - Eleni Foureira - "Fuego" - 8

5. Austria - Cesár Sampson - "Nobody but You" - 8

6. Belgium - SENNEK - "A Matter of Time" - 8

7. Bulgaria - EQUINOX - "Bones" - 7.5

8. Greece - Yianna Terzi - "Oneiro Mou" - 7

9. Armenia - Sevak Khanagyan - "Qami" - 7

10. Finland - Saara Aalto - "Monsters" - 6.5

11. Azerbaijan - Aisel - "X My Heart" - 6

12. FYR Macedonia - Eye Que - "Lost And Found" - 5.5

13. Ireland - Ryan O'Shaughnessy - "Together" - 5

14. Switzerland - Zibbz - "Stones" - 5

15. Lithuania - Ieva Zasimauskaitė - "When We're Old" - 5

16. Belarus - Alekseev - "Forever" - 4.5

17. Albania - Eugent Bushpepa - "Mall" - 4.5

18. Croatia - Franka - "Crazy" - 4

19. Iceland - Ari Ólafsson - "Our Choice" - 2

Semi 2 (by chances of qualification)

1. Sweden - Benjamin Ingrosso - "Dance You Off" - 10

2. Ukraine - Melovin - "Under the Ladder" - 9.5

3. Norway - Alexander Rybak - "That's How You Write A Song" - 9

4. Denmark - Rasmussen - "Higher Ground" - 9

5. The Netherlands - Waylon - "Outlaw In 'Em" - 9

6. Australia - Jessica Mauboy - "We Got Love" - 8

7. Poland - Gromee feat. Lukas Meijer - "Light Me Up"

8. Russia - Julia Samoylova - "I Won't Break" - 8

9. Moldova - DoReDos - "My Lucky Day" - 7.5

10. Hungary - AWS - "Viszlát nyár" - 7

11. Romania - The Humans - "Goodbye" - 6

12. Latvia - Laura Rizzotto - "Funny Girl" - 5.5

13. Montenegro - Vanja Radovanović - "Inje" - 5

14. Slovenia - Lea Sirk - "Hvala, ne!" - 5

15. Malta - Christabelle - "Taboo" - 5

16. Georgia - Iriao - "For You" - 5

17. Serbia - Sanja Ilić & Balkanika - "Nova Deca" - 5

18. San Marino - Jessika feat. Jenifer Brening - "Who We Are" - 1

The big 5 + Portugal (by personal score - ties broken by preference)
1. France - Madame Monsieur - "Mercy" - 9.5
2. Portugal - Cláudia Pascoal - "O jardim" - 9
3. Italy - Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro - "Non mi avete fatto niente" - 8
4. Spain - Alfred & Amaia - "Tu canción" - 6
5. United Kingdom - SuRie - "Storm" - 6
6. Germany - Michael Schulte -"You Let Me Walk Alone" - 5.5

Overall ranking so far (by personal score - ties broken by preference)

1. France - Madame Monsieur - "Mercy" - 9.5
2. Israel - Netta - "Toy" - 9.5

3. Portugal - Cláudia Pascoal - "O jardim" - 9
4. Estonia - Elina Nechayeva - "La Forza" - 9

5. FYR Macedonia - Eye Que - "Lost And Found" - 9

6. Greece - Yianna Terzi - "Oneiro Mou" - 9

7. Belgium - SENNEK - "A Matter of Time" - 9

8. Denmark - Rasmussen - "Higher Ground" - 8.5

9. Austria - Cesár Sampson - "Nobody but You" - 8.5

10. Cyprus - Eleni Foureira - "Fuego" - 8.5

11. Slovenia - Lea Sirk - "Hvala, ne!" - 8.5

12. Ukraine - Melovin - "Under the Ladder" - 8.5

13. Bulgaria - EQUINOX - "Bones" - 8

14. Croatia - Franka - "Crazy" - 8

15. Serbia - Sanja Ilić & Balkanika - "Nova Deca" - 8
16. Italy - Ermal Meta & Fabrizio Moro - "Non mi avete fatto niente" - 8

17. Moldova - DoReDos - "My Lucky Day" - 8

18. Azerbaijan - Aisel - "X My Heart" - 7.5

19. Australia - Jessica Mauboy - "We Got Love" - 7.5

20. Switzerland - Zibbz - "Stones" - 7.5

21. Finland - Saara Aalto - "Monsters" - 7.5

22. Armenia - Sevak Khanagyan - "Qami" - 7.5

23. Russia - Julia Samoylova - "I Won't Break" - 7.5

24. Georgia - Iriao - "For You" - 7.5

25. Hungary - AWS - "Viszlát nyár" - 7.5

26. Albania - Eugent Bushpepa - "Mall" - 7.5

27. Latvia - Laura Rizzotto - "Funny Girl" - 7

28. Czech Republic - Mikolas Josef - "Lie To Me" - 7

29. Sweden - Benjamin Ingrosso - "Dance You Off" - 7

30. Malta - Christabelle - "Taboo" - 7
31. Spain - Alfred & Amaia - "Tu canción" - 6.5
32. United Kingdom - SuRie - "Storm" - 6

33. Poland - Gromee feat. Lukas Meijer - "Light Me Up" - 6

34. Lithuania - Ieva Zasimauskaitė - "When We're Old" - 6

35. The Netherlands - Waylon - "Outlaw In 'Em" - 6

36. Belarus - Alekseev - "Forever" - 6

37. Montenegro - Vanja Radovanović - "Inje" - 5.5
38. Germany - Michael Schulte -"You Let Me Walk Alone" - 5.5

39. San Marino - Jessika feat. Jenifer Brening - "Who We Are" - 5

40. Ireland - Ryan O'Shaughnessy - "Together" - 5

41. Romania - The Humans - "Goodbye" - 4

42. Norway - Alexander Rybak - "That's How You Write A Song" - 3

43. Iceland - Ari Ólafsson - "Our Choice" - 3

Next week, I'll be giving my predictions for semi 1 (May 8), semi 2 (May 10) and the grand final (May 12)! In the meantime, revisit the other review posts:

Part 1 - Albania, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Australia, Denmark, Moldova.

Part 2 - Belgium, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, The Netherlands, Norway, Romania.

Part 3 - Estonia, Iceland, Israel, Russia, San Marino, Serbia.

Part 4 - Lithuania, Armenia, Austria, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia.

Part 5 - Croatia, Cyprus, Finland, Malta, Montenegro, Poland.
Part 6 - Greece, Ireland, FYR Macedonia, Switzerland, Slovenia, Sweden, Ukraine

Thursday 10 May 2018

Eurovision 2018 - Semi final 2 predictions

Tuesday 8 May 2018

Eurovision 2018 - Semi final 1 predictions

Friday 4 May 2018

Eurovision 2018 song reviews (part 7) - France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, Spain, United Kingdom